To Be, or Not To Be, An Undocumented Migrant

The chance of dying during the first year of life in the least developed countries is ten times higher than in the more developed countries. Credit: Franz Chávez/IPS

By Joseph Chamie
PORTLAND, USA, Jul 16 2025 – To be, or not to be, an undocumented migrant, that is the question for millions of men, women and children in many less developed countries. “Whether ‘tis nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, or to take arms against a sea of troubles and by opposing end them” for a better life as an undocumented migrant in a foreign land.

In many less developed countries, especially the least developed, millions of men, women and children live an onerous existence, enduring the pain and hardships of their daily lives.

Unfortunately, many people in these areas experience high levels of poverty, unemployment, low wages, violence, crime, persecution, political instability, armed conflict, lack of health care, limited education opportunities, and, increasingly, the effects of climate change.

The fundamental choice for many millions of men and women in less developed countries is between staying in their homelands and enduring a difficult life or migrating to become an undocumented migrant with a chance for a more promising future in a foreign land

Most of these individuals prefer to stay in their homelands with their families and friends, but they see little hope for personal improvement in their lifetimes.

Pessimistic views on social, economic and political progress in less developed countries are reinforced by the lack of advancement in development initiatives and cuts in foreign aid programs.

For instance, the international community adopted 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015 to bring about transformative change by 2030. Current reports indicate that most of the SDGs are off track with progress on many key indicators stalled or even reversed in recent years. Some major donor countries have also reduced or discontinued their development assistance programs and humanitarian aid.

In stark contrast to conditions in many less developed countries, people in more developed countries are seen as living in a comparative paradise. Men, women and children in these populations enjoy peace, security, political stability, wealth, employment, abundance, housing, educational opportunities, public services, health care, lower mortality rates and longer life spans.

Although in 2025, the populations of the least developed countries and the more developed countries are about the same size, 1.2 and 1.3 billion, respectively, their demographic circumstances differ considerably.

For example, the chance of dying during the first year of life in the least developed countries is ten times higher than in the more developed countries. In 2025, the infant mortality rate in the more developed countries is 4 deaths per 1,000 births, while in the least developed countries it is nearly 40, with the rate for the less developed countries excluding the least developed falling in between at 24 (Figure 1).

 

 

Life expectancy at birth is significantly higher in more developed countries than in the least developed countries, at 80 and 67 years, respectively. This life expectancy advantage in more developed countries continues into older age groups, reaching 20 and 15 years, respectively, at age 65 years (Table 1).

 

 

With deaths outnumbering births, the annual population growth rate of more developed countries in 2025 rises to about 0.1% due to international migration. Over the coming decades, the population of more developed countries is projected to decline slowly, falling by almost 100 million and ending up slightly below 1.2 billion by the close of the century.

This expected population decline of the more developed countries, however, assumes continuing international migration to those countries over the coming decades. With zero migration, the projected demographic decline of the more developed countries is considerably greater, with their population decreasing to about 830 million by 2100 (Figure 2).

 

 

In stark contrast, the population of least developed countries is growing relatively rapidly, with an annual growth rate of 2.3%, which is about 30 times greater than the growth rate of more developed countries. Their current population of 1.2 billion is projected to double to 2.4 billion in approximately 40 years and reach 3.1 billion by the end of the 21st century, nearly a third of the world’s population.

The population of less developed countries excluding the least developed is projected to increase from its current level of 5.7 billion to a peak of 6.5 billion around midcentury. It is then expected to decline, reaching 6 billion in 2100, approximately 58 percent of the world’s population.

The population of more developed countries is substantially older than that of the least developed countries and other less developed countries. In 2025, about 20% of the population in more developed countries was aged 65 years or older, compared to 4% in the least developed countries.

This difference in age structures is expected to continue in the coming decades. By the close of the 21st century, nearly one-third of the population of more developed countries is projected to be aged 65 years or older, compared to about 15% for the least developed countries (Figure 3).

 

 

In addition to the millions of men and women in less developed countries living under challenging social, economic and political conditions, by the end of 2024, approximately 123 million people worldwide had been forced to flee their homes due to persecution, conflict, human rights violations, and severe public disorder.

Among those displaced from their homes were about 43 million refugees and close to 5 million stateless people. These individuals have been denied nationality and lack access to employment, health care, education and freedom of movement.

The numbers of people displaced by climate change have also been increasing in recent years. It is estimated that more than 200 million people could be forcibly displaced by extreme weather and environmental disasters by 2050.

Given the challenging living conditions faced by many around the world, it is not surprising that approximately 16% of the world’s population, or 1.3 billion people, desire to leave their country.

These desires have become a reality for many men and women who have sought a better life as undocumented migrants in other countries. Of the approximately 305 million immigrants in the world in 2025, perhaps a quarter of them, about 75 million are estimated to be undocumented.

Millions of men and women desire to emigrate to another country, while many people living in wealthy destination countries believe fewer or no immigrants should be allowed in. For many countries, this sentiment towards immigrants is at odds with their historical heritage.

In the United States, for example, the anti-immigrant sentiment contradicts the words inscribed at the base of the Statue of Liberty. A well-known part of the inscription states, “Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door!”

While attempting to limit immigration numbers, especially undocumented migrants, these countries are also facing population decline, labor force shortages, and demographic ageing.

In the recent past, many countries in various regions have addressed undocumented migrants living in their territory by providing legal status or granting amnesty to those who met certain requirements.

In 2024, Spain granted legal status to hundreds of thousands of undocumented migrants. This amnesty was partly driven by Spain’s labor force shortages and the ageing of its population.

About a decade ago, Germany decided not to close its borders to refugees and accepted over 1.2 million refugees and asylum seekers, particularly those fleeing Syria’s civil war. Today, a significant proportion of those refugees and asylum seekers are employed in Germany’s workforce.

In 1986, the United States enacted an amnesty program that granted legal status to certain undocumented immigrants who had lived in the United States before January 1, 1982. This program legalized approximately 2.7 million immigrants, once again adding many workers to the country’s labor force.

In conclusion, the fundamental choice for many millions of men and women in less developed countries is between staying in their homelands and enduring a difficult life or migrating to become an undocumented migrant with a chance for a more promising future in a foreign land.

For those living comfortably in today’s wealthy developed countries, “Imagine that you see the wretched strangers, Their babies at their backs and poor luggage, Plodding to the ports and coasts for transportation, And that you sit as kings in your desires, Authority quite silent by your brawl, And you in ruff of your opinions clothed, How order should be quelled, As but to banish you, whither would you go? What country, by the nature of your error, should give you harbor?”.

Throughout much of human history, as documented and evident in countries worldwide, people have migrated to foreign lands in search of a better future. Today, many men, women and children are choosing, often reluctantly and with considerable trepidation and risks, to become undocumented migrants for this opportunity.

 

Joseph Chamie is a consulting demographer, a former director of the United Nations Population Division, and author of many publications on population issues, including his recent book, “Population Levels, Trends, and Differentials”.